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Investing in high-yield or emerging market bonds are two attractive alternatives in the current uncertain market environment. For those willing to bear the risk of owning equities, investing in companies with high dividend yields is also a good option. Here you can hear Hans Peterson, head of Investment Strategy at SEB, outline some main conclusions in the most recent issue of the Investment Outlook report. Click link to read full report.

SEB published its Nordic Outlook report Tuesday and at the same time provided forecasts in a number of areas. One such forecast was for a capital infusion of 50 billion euro at the European Investment Bank (EIB) in order to finance investments across Europe.

“We want to clarify that this was a forecast we made without having any unique information regarding the size of any capital infusion or if such an infusion will happen at all,” Robert Bergqvist, SEB’s Chief Economist, says.

SEB’s experts in a new issue of Commodities Monthly forecast that commodity prices remain under pressure from deteriorating economic conditions in the eurozone and loss of bullish momentum in the US following disappointing growth and employment data. Chinese manufacturing PMIs have stabilised with improvements increasing the likelihood of a soft landing. Slower food price inflation should provide scope for Chinese authorities to ease monetary policy should it become necessary to support economic growth.

A Greek parliamentary election scheduled for May 6 risks upsetting the balance achieved by the present caretaker government and derail the current rescue package. However, we believe the most likely outcome is a pro bail-out government coalition between New Democracy and Pasok, although other outcomes are possible, writes SEB economist Andreas Johnson in a new research note.

Francois Hollande is set to win the upcoming French election, with the latest polls awarding him around 56 per cent of the votes in a final round on 6 May. SEB’s economists in a new research note say a Hollande victory would be detrimental to French public finances but no game changer; the differences between him and Nicolas Sarkozy regarding public finances should not be exaggerated. Bond markets will force the next president to adopt a tough approach to the country's budget deficit.

Economic growth has led to lower unemployment and combined with earnings from abroad and remittances this has added a significant amount of funds to households’ disposable income in all three Baltic countries, SEB’s latest Baltic Household Outlook shows.

SEB’s experts see a 25 per cent chance the Riksbank will cut its repo rate by 25 basis points to 1.25 per cent at Wednesday’s rate decision. An investor survey done by SEB shows only 8 per cent of respondents foresee a rate cut and in an internal survey among SEB’s own fixed income traders and experts, 18 per cent says they believe the rate will be cut. The alternative to a cut is an unchanged repo rate.

SEB's Chief Strategist Johan Javeus, in new report released Friday, argues that Spain is likely to need a bailout but is unlikely to default. He says Spain's relatively low debt level is the best insurance that a Greek-style default can be avoided.

The Swedish government is set to present its Spring Fiscal Policy Bill (SPFB) next week. SEB’s economists don’t foresee any major new reforms in the bill, but says it will instead focus on highlighting reform areas for the upcoming autumn Budget Bill. Still, they assume there will be additional reforms totalling 5 billion Swedish kronor in the SPFB and 15 billion kronor in the Budget Bill. This will result in a slightly expansive fiscal policy, equivalent to 0.2 per cent of GDP in 2012 and 0.3 per cent in 2013.

Swedish households again believe in rising house prices. SEB’s housing price indicator for April increased to +15, the highest level since June last year. In detail, 41 per cent of respondents expect prices to increase while 26 per cent expect prices to decrease. 26 per cent expect prices to stay unchanged. For the first time since June, all regions’ indicators are back at positive levels although there are still large division between regions.

The world economy seems to have reached a new crossroads. The question is whether the positive trend can be strengthened, in an environment of continued debt consolidation needs and persistently high oil prices. Håkan Frisén, SEB’s head of economic research, discusses the issue in a new report released Tuesday.

In a new report, SEB’s experts say Brent crude is likely to face several headwinds over the next few months. Meanwhile, the projected full impact of Iranian sanctions and growing seasonal oil demand worldwide is however also ahead. The experts however say global refining economics continued to improve in March as worldwide gasoline demand is strong while inventories are low or falling.

SEB’s economists in new report raise their forecast for Norway’s mainland GDP growth to 2.6 per cent in 2012 from 2.3 per cent previously. Activity indicators for the first couple of months of the year suggest that overall activity has started on a stronger-than-expected footing. The solid impression fits with what respondents reported in the most recent report from Norges Bank's regional network. The economists keep their 2013 mainland GDP forecast unchanged at 2.9 per cent, but notes there’s upside potential.

Some 50 chief executives participated in SEB's 2012 Nordic Business Delegation. During a few intensive days on location in Seoul, the CEO group and SEB’s top managers heard stimulating lectures about South Korea, gained historical insights, took part in discussions and visited the Demilitarised Zone and the border between North and South Korea. Robert Bergqvist, SEB's chief economist, has published a travel report.

Danish growth stalled in the latter part of 2011 as export growth slowed and public consumption kept contracting. The fiscal stance is set to reverse providing an important growth impetus this year, SEB’s economists forecast in a new report. Still the economists project full-year GDP growth of only 0.5 per cent for 2012 before it recovers to 1.4 per cent in 2013.

SEB’s economists say it is clear that activity in the Chinese economy has been weak at the start of 2012 and that recent development puts a downside risk to their above-consensus GDP forecast of 8.7 per cent growth in 2012. Still, they see a rebound in activity in April and there’s no hard landing in sight.

While adjusting the growth forecast for the UK economy this year marginally up, SEB’s economist keep their overall bearish outlook. The economists now project the UK economy will grow 0.4 per cent in 2012 and 1.4 per cent in 2013. The labor force is growing and the unemployment rate is on a rising trend. Unemployment should hit 8.8 per cent in 2013.

SEB’s economist have revised up their forecast for the euro zone economy due to positive indicators recently as well as a stabilisation in financial markets after the European Central Bank’s actions. The economists, led by Andreas Johnson, now project the euro zone’s GDP to fall 0.6 per cent in 2012 before returning to growth of 0.8 per cent in 2013.

SEB’s economists project the US economy will rebound later in 2012 after GDP growth slows to 2 per cent in the first quarter. They say many soft indicators point to a strengthening final demand and therefore keep their 2012 GDP growth forecast at 2.5 per cent. The economists, led by Mattias Bruér, forecast unemployment gradually declining tow 7.4 per cent at the end of 2013.

China is set to replace its president and prime minister in October or November. In a review of the Chinese economy, SEB’s economists led by Andreas Johnson say the leadership changeover will put major reforms on hold as politicians seeking more senior positions in the political hierarchy want to avoid controversial decisions, and those leaving office wishing to do so with their legacy intact. Little is known about how future economic policy will be affected but future reforms are expected to aim for slower but more balanced growth.

Norwegian investors have not acquired any major positions in the country’s currency during the past six months despite the recent strong performance of the krone, suggesting the rally has been driven by foreign investors. SEB’s experts see the krone trading around current levels for the remainder of 2012.

From a crude oil market balance perspective the outlook is clearly price positive. Generally, growth in demand looks set to continue increasing faster than supply, providing the basis for our bullish underlying market view, SEB's experts say in a new report.

The persistent high price of oil is becoming a threat to global growth and recovery, SEB commodities analysts argue in the latest Commodities Monthly report released today. Paradoxically, the increasing prices are in part due to improved economic sentiment in both the US and Europe.

SEB economist Mattias Bruer takes a look at the US labor market and statements from the Federal Reserve to get a better view of what might lie ahead in terms of policy decisions from the central bank. He recommends focusing less on the unemployment rate and more on employment, GDP and inflation trends to find an answer. Bruer says further quantitative easing, QE3, remains on the table.

Hans Peterson, head of Investment Strategy at SEB, talks about the current investment climate and the new issue of Investment Outlook. He says that in spite of problems in some countries and regions, 2012 has the potential to be a good year for investors and the second half is set to be better than the first half.

Click link below to read the full report.

Clear signals of a US recovery combined with a deepening euro zone debt crisis have figured prominently in recent economic developments. SEB’s economists have presented updated forecasts for various regions in the past week. They have adjusted GDP growth in the United States upward to 2.3 per cent in 2012, while they now expect the euro zone economy to shrink by 0.6 per cent. Strong fourth quarter 2011 GDP figures have led to an upward revision of this year’s Chinese growth. Taken together, this means that SEB now anticipates marginally higher global growth compared to the November forecast in Nordic Outlook.

Net exports have stopped being the growth driver for the Danish economy. Instead, after retrenchment in 2011, fiscal policy will take over as growth driver in 2012 due to public investments and one-off transfers from a pension reform. However, the stimulus looks to be smaller than originally estimated. SEB’s economists therefore revise down their growth projection for the Danish economy in 2012 to 0.5 per cent but leave it at 1.4 per cent for 2013.

The broad contours of SEB’s economists’ expectations for the Norwegian economy remain intact. Growth in overall GDP should accelerate to 2.1 per cent in 2012 helped by a very strong investment cycle in the oil sector. However, relative to their outlook in November last year, they have sliced their forecast for growth in mainland GDP – excluding oil/gas and shipping – to 2.4 per cent in 2012, marginally slower than in 2011, but leave the 2013 forecast at 2.9 per cent.

SEB’s economists maintain their relatively positive view on Russia in the near term as long as the oil price stays at roughly the level as it is today. They forecast GDP to grow by 3.6 per cent in 2012 and 4.1 per cent in 2013, a minor downward revision for both years compared to the forecast made in November 2011.

SEB’s economists in a note says that while the ongoing crisis in the euro zone and worsening economic outlook for many of the UK’s important trading partners are downside risks, leading indicators such as the PMIs have been encouraging, suggesting that GDP growth will turn positive again in the current quarter. The UK may thus escape a technical recession. All in all, SEB’s GDP forecasts have been lowered to 0.4 per cent for 2012 and 1.7 per cent in 2013.

SEB’s economists have raised their forecast for China’s GDP growth to 8.5 per cent in 2012 and 8.7 per cent in 2013 following growth of 8.9 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2011. The economists say that as long as the euro zone debt and banking crisis does not spread globally there’s a chance growth could exceed the forecast.

In a new issue of Commodities Monthly, SEB’s experts say commodities prices are likely to struggle during the first half of 2012 with leading indicators still forecasting relatively low economic activity over the next six months. However, accelerating US growth, long term ECB refinancing operations and monetary easing in China are supportive factors. Global commodity destocking continued in December, opening up the possibility of restocking at a later stage.

The ongoing crisis in the euro zone and a weak economic outlook for many important export partners is taking its toll on the export dependent Finnish economy. Leading indicators have been continued to fall in late 2011 after a temporary upturn in September-October. SEB’s economists have revised downwards their 2012 and 2013 economic growth forecast for the Finnish economy to 0.5 per cent and 1.7 per cent respectively.

SEB’s economists have revised their forecast for Sweden’s 2012 growth downwards to 0.5 per cent from 0.7 per cent, mainly due to further deterioration of the growth outlook for the euro zone. Incoming data also confirm the assessment that GDP declined in the fourth quarter and the economists have lowered their forecast to a 0.8 per cent fall compared to the third quarter.

The Japanese economy is still recovering and SEB’s economists remain relatively optimistic on the near-term growth prospects, helped by further reconstruction work.

Still, yen appreciation is hurting the export sector and consequently the economists have sliced a few tenths off of the 2012 GDP forecast. Real GDP will grow 1.7 per cent and 1.2 per cent in 2012 and 2013, respectively according to an updated forecast.

There have been some encouraging economic data lately but the euro zone is still unlikely to avoid a recession, SEB’s economists say in a research note. Weakening growth prospects, delayed reforms and political challenges imply that a Greek exit from the euro zone is a distinct possibility. However, a break up of the whole euro zone is still unlikely but success depends on continuing support from the ECB combined with national adjustment programmes and further steps toward a fiscal union.

SEB’s economists in a forecast update estimate that U.S. real GDP grew at a 3.5 per cent annualised rate in the fourth quarter; a tad higher than the bank’s forecast in the latest Nordic Outlook. The economy clearly has momentum and the fiscal headwind is actually less severe than previously forecasted, at least in the very short term. But while the U.S. economy gives off the allure of a country that has decoupled, the economists are concerned about the tightening in financial conditions as well as the lagged effects from the recession in Europe.

SEB’s Housing Price Indicator rose to -17, but remains stuck in a fairly small range with most households expecting prices to decrease or stay unchanged. In January’s survey, 69 per cent of respondents believe house prices will decrease or stay unchanged over the coming year. More specifically, 43 per cent of the households expect prices to fall while 26 per cent believe house prices will stay unchanged. The share expecting prices to rise was unchanged at 26 per cent for the third month in a row.

As the Chinese standard of living improves, social unrest is both increasing and changing character. China is currently approaching a level of affluence which research has shown increases the likelihood of democratisation. Indeed, protests appear to be refocusing from economic to political issues, writes SEB economist Andreas Johnson in a research note.

However, what is at stake is not an overthrow of government but rather reform of the country's political system.

SEB’s experts see commodities markets off to a shaky start 2012, but the situation should gradually improve over the course of the year assuming no major negative event such as a hard landing in China or a euro zone break-up. In the latest issue of Commodities Monthly, SEB’s experts says there’s little further downside risks for energy and metals prices due to marginal costs and supply optimization efforts in producer countries.

Crude oil is back on the radar with prices forecast to rise more than previously expected, but in general commodities will be flat over the next six months in light of the current global turbulence.

Increasingly likely resolute action to contain the eurozone debt crisis will probably sustain the current commodity rebound. However, momentum may soon ease or reverse with even more lackluster OECD leading indicators signaling weak global growth in 2012. China's more than one year old monetary tightening cycle is now showing significant effect, stirring up some hard landing concerns.

SEB’s economists have cut their GDP growth forecasts for the eurozone since, with a few exceptions, indicators have been weaker than expected over the past six weeks. The economists do not yet see solution to the financial crisis in sight, which implies substantial risk of a recession. A statement by Angela Merkel Nicolas Sarkozy last week about bank recapitalisation and solving the Greek crisis is mildly encouraging.

Impressions from the past weekend’s meetings in Washington, DC, are scary on several levels. Finance ministers and central bank governors expressed unprecedented and unanimous pessimism. Decisions during the next six weeks until the November 3-4 meeting of the Group of 20 will be of major importance in determining how economic crises and growth in the world will unfold. SEB’s chief economist Robert Bergqvist gives his view on the situation in a note released Wednesday.

In the latest issue of Commodities Monthly, SEB’s experts say that gold is likely to shine yet brighter as the eurozone debt situation continues to intensify and debt laden OECD governments are forced to launch monetary rather than fiscal stimulus in order to counter flagging growth. However, broad based commodity indices are going to struggle as leading indicators point to further weakening in global growth while individual commodity performance is going to be more divergent with commodities in tight supply fairing the best while others will remain in harms way.

Given the uncertain outlook for the world’s two most liquid currencies, the dollar and the euro, investors are likely to continue to diversify away from them towards fundamentally stronger peers. In the latest issue of Currency Strategy, SEB’s experts remain optimistic concerning currencies with strong internal and external fundamentals, which should attract further capital inflows.

Today's turbulent economic times dictate a cautious approach to investment and spreading portfolios over a range of asset classes, advices Hans Peterson and team from Investment Strategy in the latest Investment Outlook released Tuesday. Watch Peterson talk more about investment strategies going forward or click link below to read full report.

The net difference between those expecting house prices in Sweden to rise and those expecting them to fall over the coming year declined to -24 in September from -2 last month. The drop is similar in size to the large drop seen in October 2008, immediately after the Lehman crash.

Thursday’s eurozone agreement is a step in the right direction. However, we’re moving through a 3-stage process: solving liquidity problems, solving solvency problems, and re-building economies to create long-term economic growth/stability. We are still in the first stage. Moreover, challenges will remain due to uncertainty about the situation in Portugal, Ireland and Spain, more question marks about global growth momentum and the political and democratic implications of latest and upcoming necessary political decisions.

SEB has adjusted the full year 2011 and 2012 forecasts for the Lithuanian economy upward due to unexpectedly positive business and consumer sentiment and an upturn in domestic demand. However, as in the other Baltic countries volumes in private consumption and investments are still low. SEB’s experts now believe the Lithuanian economy will grow 6.5 per cent in 2011 and 5.0 per cent in 2012.

The European Commission will present a proposal for a Tobin tax on financial transactions this autumn. Implementation of this tax is unlikely as both Sweden and the UK oppose it. It would be easier to find support for a stability levy, writes SEB economist Andreas Johnson in a note published Wednesday.

The net difference between those expecting house prices in Sweden to rise and those expecting them to fall over the coming year declined to +29 in June from +36 last month, the lowest level since March this year. While households have become less optimistic on house prices the indicator remains stable within the range that has prevailed since summer 2009 and remains at levels signalling rising prices.

Ongoing volatility in the commodities sector will provide attractive buying opportunities in coming months, SEB researchers forecast in the latest Commodities Monthly released today. Gold in particular remains strong.

For a few weeks in April, and for the first time this year, stocks and bonds in emerging markets (EM) together attracted more cash investment than their developed market counterparts. Was that a turning point following their lacklustre performance in the first quarter? SEB’s experts says they see obvious potential risk concerning the performance of EM assets over the next three to six months, mainly including liquidity connected with terminating quantitative easing in the US, political volatility in the Middle East and North Africa spreading to major oil exporting countries and disorderly Greek debt reconstruction.

The latest issue of SEB’s Baltic Household Outlook shows that due to increased inflation, real earnings for Baltic households will rise very slowly or stay unchanged in 2011. Rising food prices is one of the current forces pushing up inflation, and is negatively affecting purchasing power of households. Food in general and also compared with different groups of products remains cheaper in Lithuania than in Estonia or Latvia. The largest increase in food prices was observed in Estonia. But food is still the most expensive in Latvia.

In the latest Commodities Monthly, SEB’s experts led by Bjarne Schieldrop say commodity prices are now at red hot levels, but could be propelled even higher by the current strong OECD recovery. Many commodity prices are stretched way above long term marginal costs, and they thus expect increasing volatility ahead. Higher commodity prices are increasingly putting the global recovery at risk with a potential contraction down the road.

There’s over 150 pages packed with tables, numbers and notes. But, in addition to financial information there’s also a clear customer perspective. SEB is publishing its annual report today and a customer relationship theme cuts across the entire publication.

The theme is obvious already on the cover with a picture of Kätlin Kruusoja, client executive at SEB in Tallinn, together with Raul Kaljuraid, co-owner and board member in the Ferroline Group in Estonia. This is only one of the customer cases highlighted in the annual report and annual review.

SEB’s Latvian Housing Price Indicator hit a new high in February with 39 per cent of respondents in a survey forecasting higher housing prices in 12 months and only 13 per cent lower prices compared to today.

The year ahead is shaping up to be a good one for investors – providing they choose the right market. In the February Investment Outlook, released Tuesday SEB predicts overall global economic growth will average 4.5 per cent in 2011 and 2012 – well above the historical trend. Emerging markets will improve by 6.5 per cent and the industrialised OECD countries will end up just below 3 per cent, in both years. Watch Hans Peterson, head of Investment Strategy at SEB, review highlights from the report.

The commodity sector in general is set for steady growth throughout 2011, led in part by high demand in emerging markets and strong liquidity in OECD countries. Development of the four commodity sub-sectors could be vastly different, however, if wild weather continues to impact agriculture and energy markets.

SEB’s housing price indicator in Latvia declined slightly in December but 38 per cent of the population still believe prices will rise over the coming 12 months. About 16 per cent believe prices will drop.

Hans Peterson, head of Investment Strategy at SEB, comments on the latest issue of Investment Outlook released Tuesday.

Energy, industrial metals and precious metals are all likely to remain stable or improve for the rest of the year, but the agricultural sector is not likely to follow suit, according to SEB's Commodities Monthly report.

Led by improved exports and increased domestic spending, the economies of Eastern Europe can expect moderate growth throughout the next two years, SEB states in the October Eastern European Outlook released today (5 October). One of the region’s hardest hit by the global credit crisis, recovery has been steady this year – in many cases better than in Western Europe – except in Latvia, which will post a decline of 1.5 per cent.

In its latest report SEB's experts led by Bjarne Shieldrop, head of commodities research, forecast that commodities will head higher in the fourth quarter of 2010 and the first quarter of 2011 as the slow recovery remains intact. Inflation hedge demand for commodities is likely to act supportive going forward as US politicians look determined to deflate the dollar. Commodity prices are thus supported both by solid emerging market growth and by further liquidity from governments around the world competing to devalue their currencies.

SEB’s latest Housing Price Indicator in Latvia reached 13.9 in September, the highest reading since the surveys started in May 2009. Around 32 per cent of respondents now say home prices will be higher in a year than they are currently while only 18 per cent believe that prices will fall.

In the most recent issue of Investment Outlook, SEB's experts recommend selective investments in emerging markets and in companies with significant exposure to those markets as an important way to create value. Click above to hear Hans Peterson, head of Investment Strategy, outline the main contents of Investment Outlook for September 2010 or click below to read the full report.

Uncertainty regarding the global economic outlook is having a major impact on currencies worldwide, but the Swedish krona continues to strengthen. In its Currency Strategy report SEB’s strategists recommend buying Swedish krona against the euro, predicting it will move to 8.90 euro by the end of the year, equating to growth of 4 per cent.

The recent hard sell-off of some of the more sound and attractive currencies such as the Swedish krona and Norwegian krone following the intensification of the sovereign debt crisis has produced interesting opportunities for longer-term investors.

The world economy is now entering a new phase, where differences in underlying conditions are becoming ever clearer. “Our main scenario is that the recovery will continue in spite of imbalances and crises,” says Håkan Frisén, head of SEB Economic Research in a comment to the latest Nordic Outlook released Tuesday.

During 2009, SEB developed a new strategy for corporate sustainability, set out to significantly reduce its carbon emissions and decided to immediately compensate fully for the remaining emissions. Read about this and more in the Corporate Sustainability report for 2009.

SEB has, since 2006, interviewed financial officers at Sweden’s 100 largest companies each quarter to check the temperature of the Swedish business community. Now, SEB in Norway has copied the Swedish concept and conducts a similar survey among financial officers at Norway's largest companies.

SEB has now published its Annual Report online. In conjunction with this, the bank also published its Capital Adequacy and Risk Management report (Pillar 3), which is disclosed in accordance with the Capital Requirements Directive. An abbreviated version of the Annual Report, the Annual Review, is also available for online viewing and download.

SEB’s most recent China Financial Index survey shows that senior managers at Northern European companies’ subsidiaries in China foresee a continued improvement in business prospects. Companies are now moving to a more aggressive strategy with increased investments and more recruitment there.

Economic growth will resume in the OECD countries and hit close to trend levels this year and next. This is sufficient to stabilise the job market in many countries, but there is still a great risk that unemployment gets stuck at high levels.

Necessary budget corrections in the three Baltic countries are under way and previously high interbank rates have come down significantly. SEB’s main scenario is that all three countries can maintain their current currency pegs.

Eastern Europe is the region hardest hit by the global credit crisis and recession. During the summer, the economic cycle has nevertheless bottomed out in Eastern Europe as well. But the recovery will be shaky and uneven.