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Investing in high-yield or emerging market bonds are two attractive alternatives in the current uncertain market environment. For those willing to bear the risk of owning equities, investing in companies with high dividend yields is also a good option. Here you can hear Hans Peterson, head of Investment Strategy at SEB, outline some main conclusions in the most recent issue of the Investment Outlook report. Click link to read full report.

SEB’s Asia team has created a new publication covering interesting developments in the region – SEB Asia Corporate Bulletin.

Petter Sandgren, head of the bank’s trading and capital markets business in Singapore, says: “The report provides a snapshot of what is happening in Asia with input from all SEB’s operations in the region: Singapore, Shanghai, Hong Kong and New Delhi. It includes general information such as regulatory changes, comments on trends, macro updates and forecasts of key economic indicators, as well as specialised articles.”

SEB published its Nordic Outlook report Tuesday and at the same time provided forecasts in a number of areas. One such forecast was for a capital infusion of 50 billion euro at the European Investment Bank (EIB) in order to finance investments across Europe.

“We want to clarify that this was a forecast we made without having any unique information regarding the size of any capital infusion or if such an infusion will happen at all,” Robert Bergqvist, SEB’s Chief Economist, says.

SEB’s experts in a new issue of Commodities Monthly forecast that commodity prices remain under pressure from deteriorating economic conditions in the eurozone and loss of bullish momentum in the US following disappointing growth and employment data. Chinese manufacturing PMIs have stabilised with improvements increasing the likelihood of a soft landing. Slower food price inflation should provide scope for Chinese authorities to ease monetary policy should it become necessary to support economic growth.

A Greek parliamentary election scheduled for May 6 risks upsetting the balance achieved by the present caretaker government and derail the current rescue package. However, we believe the most likely outcome is a pro bail-out government coalition between New Democracy and Pasok, although other outcomes are possible, writes SEB economist Andreas Johnson in a new research note.

Francois Hollande is set to win the upcoming French election, with the latest polls awarding him around 56 per cent of the votes in a final round on 6 May. SEB’s economists in a new research note say a Hollande victory would be detrimental to French public finances but no game changer; the differences between him and Nicolas Sarkozy regarding public finances should not be exaggerated. Bond markets will force the next president to adopt a tough approach to the country's budget deficit.

Economic growth has led to lower unemployment and combined with earnings from abroad and remittances this has added a significant amount of funds to households’ disposable income in all three Baltic countries, SEB’s latest Baltic Household Outlook shows.

SEB’s experts see a 25 per cent chance the Riksbank will cut its repo rate by 25 basis points to 1.25 per cent at Wednesday’s rate decision. An investor survey done by SEB shows only 8 per cent of respondents foresee a rate cut and in an internal survey among SEB’s own fixed income traders and experts, 18 per cent says they believe the rate will be cut. The alternative to a cut is an unchanged repo rate.

SEB has retained its ranking as the top advisor and arranger of debt capital market financing for customers in Sweden in the latest TNS SIFO Prospera survey. “It's great to get confirmation from customers that they appreciate the work we do,” Anders Engstrand, globally responsible for Debt Capital Markets (DCM), says. “We see a growing interest among our customers for capital market financing, and expect continued strong growth in coming years.”

SEB's Chief Strategist Johan Javeus, in new report released Friday, argues that Spain is likely to need a bailout but is unlikely to default. He says Spain's relatively low debt level is the best insurance that a Greek-style default can be avoided.

The Swedish government is set to present its Spring Fiscal Policy Bill (SPFB) next week. SEB’s economists don’t foresee any major new reforms in the bill, but says it will instead focus on highlighting reform areas for the upcoming autumn Budget Bill. Still, they assume there will be additional reforms totalling 5 billion Swedish kronor in the SPFB and 15 billion kronor in the Budget Bill. This will result in a slightly expansive fiscal policy, equivalent to 0.2 per cent of GDP in 2012 and 0.3 per cent in 2013.

Swedish households again believe in rising house prices. SEB’s housing price indicator for April increased to +15, the highest level since June last year. In detail, 41 per cent of respondents expect prices to increase while 26 per cent expect prices to decrease. 26 per cent expect prices to stay unchanged. For the first time since June, all regions’ indicators are back at positive levels although there are still large division between regions.

The world economy seems to have reached a new crossroads. The question is whether the positive trend can be strengthened, in an environment of continued debt consolidation needs and persistently high oil prices. Håkan Frisén, SEB’s head of economic research, discusses the issue in a new report released Tuesday.

In a new report, SEB’s experts say Brent crude is likely to face several headwinds over the next few months. Meanwhile, the projected full impact of Iranian sanctions and growing seasonal oil demand worldwide is however also ahead. The experts however say global refining economics continued to improve in March as worldwide gasoline demand is strong while inventories are low or falling.

SEB’s economists in new report raise their forecast for Norway’s mainland GDP growth to 2.6 per cent in 2012 from 2.3 per cent previously. Activity indicators for the first couple of months of the year suggest that overall activity has started on a stronger-than-expected footing. The solid impression fits with what respondents reported in the most recent report from Norges Bank's regional network. The economists keep their 2013 mainland GDP forecast unchanged at 2.9 per cent, but notes there’s upside potential.

Some 50 chief executives participated in SEB's 2012 Nordic Business Delegation. During a few intensive days on location in Seoul, the CEO group and SEB’s top managers heard stimulating lectures about South Korea, gained historical insights, took part in discussions and visited the Demilitarised Zone and the border between North and South Korea. Robert Bergqvist, SEB's chief economist, has published a travel report.

Danish growth stalled in the latter part of 2011 as export growth slowed and public consumption kept contracting. The fiscal stance is set to reverse providing an important growth impetus this year, SEB’s economists forecast in a new report. Still the economists project full-year GDP growth of only 0.5 per cent for 2012 before it recovers to 1.4 per cent in 2013.

SEB’s economists say it is clear that activity in the Chinese economy has been weak at the start of 2012 and that recent development puts a downside risk to their above-consensus GDP forecast of 8.7 per cent growth in 2012. Still, they see a rebound in activity in April and there’s no hard landing in sight.

While adjusting the growth forecast for the UK economy this year marginally up, SEB’s economist keep their overall bearish outlook. The economists now project the UK economy will grow 0.4 per cent in 2012 and 1.4 per cent in 2013. The labor force is growing and the unemployment rate is on a rising trend. Unemployment should hit 8.8 per cent in 2013.

SEB’s economist have revised up their forecast for the euro zone economy due to positive indicators recently as well as a stabilisation in financial markets after the European Central Bank’s actions. The economists, led by Andreas Johnson, now project the euro zone’s GDP to fall 0.6 per cent in 2012 before returning to growth of 0.8 per cent in 2013.

SEB’s economists project the US economy will rebound later in 2012 after GDP growth slows to 2 per cent in the first quarter. They say many soft indicators point to a strengthening final demand and therefore keep their 2012 GDP growth forecast at 2.5 per cent. The economists, led by Mattias Bruér, forecast unemployment gradually declining tow 7.4 per cent at the end of 2013.

China is set to replace its president and prime minister in October or November. In a review of the Chinese economy, SEB’s economists led by Andreas Johnson say the leadership changeover will put major reforms on hold as politicians seeking more senior positions in the political hierarchy want to avoid controversial decisions, and those leaving office wishing to do so with their legacy intact. Little is known about how future economic policy will be affected but future reforms are expected to aim for slower but more balanced growth.

Norwegian investors have not acquired any major positions in the country’s currency during the past six months despite the recent strong performance of the krone, suggesting the rally has been driven by foreign investors. SEB’s experts see the krone trading around current levels for the remainder of 2012.

From a crude oil market balance perspective the outlook is clearly price positive. Generally, growth in demand looks set to continue increasing faster than supply, providing the basis for our bullish underlying market view, SEB's experts say in a new report.

None of the Swedish banks took the offer of cheap funding when the European Central Bank (ECB) Wednesday offered a three year loan facility. Anders Kvist, head of Group Financial Mangement at SEB, explains why SEB did not want to take the offer.

The persistent high price of oil is becoming a threat to global growth and recovery, SEB commodities analysts argue in the latest Commodities Monthly report released today. Paradoxically, the increasing prices are in part due to improved economic sentiment in both the US and Europe.

SEB economist Mattias Bruer takes a look at the US labor market and statements from the Federal Reserve to get a better view of what might lie ahead in terms of policy decisions from the central bank. He recommends focusing less on the unemployment rate and more on employment, GDP and inflation trends to find an answer. Bruer says further quantitative easing, QE3, remains on the table.

Hans Peterson, head of Investment Strategy at SEB, talks about the current investment climate and the new issue of Investment Outlook. He says that in spite of problems in some countries and regions, 2012 has the potential to be a good year for investors and the second half is set to be better than the first half.

Click link below to read the full report.

European investors and money managers, in a survey done by Institutional Investor magazine, named SEB Enskilda the best provider of Nordic equity research. "The survey shows that our entire Nordic team is delivering research that customers outside the Nordic region highly appreciate," Fredrik Carlsson, head of Equity Research at SEB Enskilda, says

Clear signals of a US recovery combined with a deepening euro zone debt crisis have figured prominently in recent economic developments. SEB’s economists have presented updated forecasts for various regions in the past week. They have adjusted GDP growth in the United States upward to 2.3 per cent in 2012, while they now expect the euro zone economy to shrink by 0.6 per cent. Strong fourth quarter 2011 GDP figures have led to an upward revision of this year’s Chinese growth. Taken together, this means that SEB now anticipates marginally higher global growth compared to the November forecast in Nordic Outlook.

Net exports have stopped being the growth driver for the Danish economy. Instead, after retrenchment in 2011, fiscal policy will take over as growth driver in 2012 due to public investments and one-off transfers from a pension reform. However, the stimulus looks to be smaller than originally estimated. SEB’s economists therefore revise down their growth projection for the Danish economy in 2012 to 0.5 per cent but leave it at 1.4 per cent for 2013.

The broad contours of SEB’s economists’ expectations for the Norwegian economy remain intact. Growth in overall GDP should accelerate to 2.1 per cent in 2012 helped by a very strong investment cycle in the oil sector. However, relative to their outlook in November last year, they have sliced their forecast for growth in mainland GDP – excluding oil/gas and shipping – to 2.4 per cent in 2012, marginally slower than in 2011, but leave the 2013 forecast at 2.9 per cent.

SEB’s economists maintain their relatively positive view on Russia in the near term as long as the oil price stays at roughly the level as it is today. They forecast GDP to grow by 3.6 per cent in 2012 and 4.1 per cent in 2013, a minor downward revision for both years compared to the forecast made in November 2011.

SEB’s economists in a note says that while the ongoing crisis in the euro zone and worsening economic outlook for many of the UK’s important trading partners are downside risks, leading indicators such as the PMIs have been encouraging, suggesting that GDP growth will turn positive again in the current quarter. The UK may thus escape a technical recession. All in all, SEB’s GDP forecasts have been lowered to 0.4 per cent for 2012 and 1.7 per cent in 2013.

SEB’s economists have raised their forecast for China’s GDP growth to 8.5 per cent in 2012 and 8.7 per cent in 2013 following growth of 8.9 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2011. The economists say that as long as the euro zone debt and banking crisis does not spread globally there’s a chance growth could exceed the forecast.

In a new issue of Commodities Monthly, SEB’s experts say commodities prices are likely to struggle during the first half of 2012 with leading indicators still forecasting relatively low economic activity over the next six months. However, accelerating US growth, long term ECB refinancing operations and monetary easing in China are supportive factors. Global commodity destocking continued in December, opening up the possibility of restocking at a later stage.

The ongoing crisis in the euro zone and a weak economic outlook for many important export partners is taking its toll on the export dependent Finnish economy. Leading indicators have been continued to fall in late 2011 after a temporary upturn in September-October. SEB’s economists have revised downwards their 2012 and 2013 economic growth forecast for the Finnish economy to 0.5 per cent and 1.7 per cent respectively.

SEB’s economists have revised their forecast for Sweden’s 2012 growth downwards to 0.5 per cent from 0.7 per cent, mainly due to further deterioration of the growth outlook for the euro zone. Incoming data also confirm the assessment that GDP declined in the fourth quarter and the economists have lowered their forecast to a 0.8 per cent fall compared to the third quarter.

The Japanese economy is still recovering and SEB’s economists remain relatively optimistic on the near-term growth prospects, helped by further reconstruction work.

Still, yen appreciation is hurting the export sector and consequently the economists have sliced a few tenths off of the 2012 GDP forecast. Real GDP will grow 1.7 per cent and 1.2 per cent in 2012 and 2013, respectively according to an updated forecast.

There have been some encouraging economic data lately but the euro zone is still unlikely to avoid a recession, SEB’s economists say in a research note. Weakening growth prospects, delayed reforms and political challenges imply that a Greek exit from the euro zone is a distinct possibility. However, a break up of the whole euro zone is still unlikely but success depends on continuing support from the ECB combined with national adjustment programmes and further steps toward a fiscal union.

SEB’s economists in a forecast update estimate that U.S. real GDP grew at a 3.5 per cent annualised rate in the fourth quarter; a tad higher than the bank’s forecast in the latest Nordic Outlook. The economy clearly has momentum and the fiscal headwind is actually less severe than previously forecasted, at least in the very short term. But while the U.S. economy gives off the allure of a country that has decoupled, the economists are concerned about the tightening in financial conditions as well as the lagged effects from the recession in Europe.

As the Chinese standard of living improves, social unrest is both increasing and changing character. China is currently approaching a level of affluence which research has shown increases the likelihood of democratisation. Indeed, protests appear to be refocusing from economic to political issues, writes SEB economist Andreas Johnson in a research note.

However, what is at stake is not an overthrow of government but rather reform of the country's political system.

SEB’s latest Baltic Housing Affordability Index shows that the average Estonian can buy 49 square meters of housing in the capital Tallinn, whereas the corresponding figure for Latvia and Lithuania are 43 and 35 square meters respectively.

SEB’s experts see commodities markets off to a shaky start 2012, but the situation should gradually improve over the course of the year assuming no major negative event such as a hard landing in China or a euro zone break-up. In the latest issue of Commodities Monthly, SEB’s experts says there’s little further downside risks for energy and metals prices due to marginal costs and supply optimization efforts in producer countries.

Prospera has for the second year in a row awarded SEB Enskilda the sole number 1 position in the Nordic Equity category in its annual analyst ranking.

“That we earn the top ranking trust and business from our client’s year in and year out is a tremendous achievement that requires a very high standard across all colleagues and sites in our offering, Fredrik Carlsson, head of SEB Enskilda says.

Corporate bonds issued by solid companies are emerging as the safer choice for investors in today’s turbulent market. “In some cases it is better to own corporate bonds issued by companies with stable sales than government bonds issued by countries with weak tax bases and rising expenditures,” SEB’s analysts state in the December Investment Outlook. Hans Peterson, global head of Investment Strategy within SEB’s Private Banking business, discusses investment options in this short video (4:25).

Crude oil is back on the radar with prices forecast to rise more than previously expected, but in general commodities will be flat over the next six months in light of the current global turbulence.

SEB's foreign exchange (FX) research team has reason to be happy – it has been ranked in the top five firms globally for currency forecasting by respected financial news and data provider Bloomberg. This follows a flattering client ranking from Prospera where the team was top-ranked in all but one category.

SEB’s economists led by Håkan Frisén, head of Economic Research, have cut their 2012 GDP growth forecast for Sweden 0.4 percentage points to 1.0 per cent as expectations for eurozone growth have come down. Furthermore, household consumption is showing signs of being less resilient to the downturn than previously expected.

In general, Swedish data over the last two months has been mixed. On the one hand sentiment indicators have to some extent been disappointing, on the other hand hard data have held up well.

In the near term SEB’s experts forecast third quarter 2011 growth of 0.4 per cent from the second quarter and 3.4 per cent from the year-ago quarter.

Increasingly likely resolute action to contain the eurozone debt crisis will probably sustain the current commodity rebound. However, momentum may soon ease or reverse with even more lackluster OECD leading indicators signaling weak global growth in 2012. China's more than one year old monetary tightening cycle is now showing significant effect, stirring up some hard landing concerns.

In the latest issue of Commodities Monthly, SEB’s experts say that gold is likely to shine yet brighter as the eurozone debt situation continues to intensify and debt laden OECD governments are forced to launch monetary rather than fiscal stimulus in order to counter flagging growth. However, broad based commodity indices are going to struggle as leading indicators point to further weakening in global growth while individual commodity performance is going to be more divergent with commodities in tight supply fairing the best while others will remain in harms way.

The negative interaction between the financial and real economy has changed the playing field. Despite a less favourable economic outlook the government fiscal policy will be less expansionary. Major reforms in the budget bill for 2012 are more money to infrastructure, poor pensioners, education, labour market policy and last but not least lowered VAT on restaurants. Read SEB economist Daniel Bergvall's comments here.

An early parliamentary election will be held in Latvia on 17 September SEB expects a change of government to a broad coalition which will involve the ruling centre-right and Western-oriented party, Unity. "We foresee no fundamental change in policy, with budget consolidation and euro zone membership in 2014 still a priority," Mikael Johansson, head of Eastern European research at SEB, says.

Given the uncertain outlook for the world’s two most liquid currencies, the dollar and the euro, investors are likely to continue to diversify away from them towards fundamentally stronger peers. In the latest issue of Currency Strategy, SEB’s experts remain optimistic concerning currencies with strong internal and external fundamentals, which should attract further capital inflows.

Today's turbulent economic times dictate a cautious approach to investment and spreading portfolios over a range of asset classes, advices Hans Peterson and team from Investment Strategy in the latest Investment Outlook released Tuesday. Watch Peterson talk more about investment strategies going forward or click link below to read full report.

The net difference between those expecting house prices in Sweden to rise and those expecting them to fall over the coming year declined to -24 in September from -2 last month. The drop is similar in size to the large drop seen in October 2008, immediately after the Lehman crash.

A return to the number one position on the TNS SIFO Prospera ranking for cross-Nordic equities shows SEB is the industry's most appreciated and largest stockbroker in the business area, Fredrik Carlsson, head of equity research at SEB Enskilda, comments.

Thursday’s eurozone agreement is a step in the right direction. However, we’re moving through a 3-stage process: solving liquidity problems, solving solvency problems, and re-building economies to create long-term economic growth/stability. We are still in the first stage. Moreover, challenges will remain due to uncertainty about the situation in Portugal, Ireland and Spain, more question marks about global growth momentum and the political and democratic implications of latest and upcoming necessary political decisions.

SEB has adjusted the full year 2011 and 2012 forecasts for the Lithuanian economy upward due to unexpectedly positive business and consumer sentiment and an upturn in domestic demand. However, as in the other Baltic countries volumes in private consumption and investments are still low. SEB’s experts now believe the Lithuanian economy will grow 6.5 per cent in 2011 and 5.0 per cent in 2012.

The European Commission will present a proposal for a Tobin tax on financial transactions this autumn. Implementation of this tax is unlikely as both Sweden and the UK oppose it. It would be easier to find support for a stability levy, writes SEB economist Andreas Johnson in a note published Wednesday.

The net difference between those expecting house prices in Sweden to rise and those expecting them to fall over the coming year declined to +29 in June from +36 last month, the lowest level since March this year. While households have become less optimistic on house prices the indicator remains stable within the range that has prevailed since summer 2009 and remains at levels signalling rising prices.

Ongoing volatility in the commodities sector will provide attractive buying opportunities in coming months, SEB researchers forecast in the latest Commodities Monthly released today. Gold in particular remains strong.

For a few weeks in April, and for the first time this year, stocks and bonds in emerging markets (EM) together attracted more cash investment than their developed market counterparts. Was that a turning point following their lacklustre performance in the first quarter? SEB’s experts says they see obvious potential risk concerning the performance of EM assets over the next three to six months, mainly including liquidity connected with terminating quantitative easing in the US, political volatility in the Middle East and North Africa spreading to major oil exporting countries and disorderly Greek debt reconstruction.

The global recovery will continue, helped by the underlying power of the emerging market economies, low interest rates in the Western world and optimistic, profitable companies, SEB’s economists say in the latest issue of Nordic Outlook released Tuesday.

Cautious economic policy tightening in emerging market economies will lay the groundwork for a soft landing, while in the OECD countries the recovery has become sufficiently self-sustaining to withstand the challenges created by the disaster in Japan, unrest in the Middle East/North Africa and high prices for energy and other commodities.

The latest issue of SEB’s Baltic Household Outlook shows that due to increased inflation, real earnings for Baltic households will rise very slowly or stay unchanged in 2011. Rising food prices is one of the current forces pushing up inflation, and is negatively affecting purchasing power of households. Food in general and also compared with different groups of products remains cheaper in Lithuania than in Estonia or Latvia. The largest increase in food prices was observed in Estonia. But food is still the most expensive in Latvia.

While rising oil prices have not yet killed off the global economic recovery, SEB's commodities experts express a concern that they may do so. Sharply lower purchasing manager indices (PMIs) clearly signal a risk. Rising European and emerging market interest rates are causing money portfolios to diversify away from the dollar, which is expected to depreciate in the second quarter, thereby supporting commodity prices. With hedge funds more exposed to commodities than at their 2008 high, SEB also anticipates increasing volatility, divergence and profit taking.

Eastern European economies will strengthen in 2011 on the back of greater household purchasing power and competitive exports, states SEB's Eastern European Outlook released today (23 March).

Overall, economic conditions will strengthen across the region over the next two years, with exports driving growth this year. Head of eastern European analysis Mikael Johansson, responsible for the report, says consumption and capital spending are awakening from their crisis-period hibernation as employment levels and wages improve, providing solid support for the growth.

SEB’s experts believe effects on financial markets and the economy from the earthquake and tsunami in Japan will be short lived while nuclear problems pose a big risk.

The economists have assembled a chart package on possible economic effects from the earth quake. Among others they have included charts on growth and financial markets after Kobe quake, hurricane Katrina 2005 and the 9-11 terror attacks 2001. There are also some charts on the Japanese energy sector, implications for oil prices and Japanese holdings of US bonds.

Their main scenario remains that the impact on growth will be limited and that central banks will hike according to plans. They also discuss a risk scenario for growth and central banks if the nuclear damage should deteriorate.

Northern European subsidiaries operating in China have a more bullish outlook on the economy than those from other regions, according to SEB's latest China Financial Index, with 80 per cent of those surveyed indicating a positive or very positive outlook on market prospects.

In the latest Commodities Monthly, SEB’s experts led by Bjarne Schieldrop say commodity prices are now at red hot levels, but could be propelled even higher by the current strong OECD recovery. Many commodity prices are stretched way above long term marginal costs, and they thus expect increasing volatility ahead. Higher commodity prices are increasingly putting the global recovery at risk with a potential contraction down the road.

Supply concerns for Libya now are lower but the main concern has all the time been a fear of wider supply disruptions across the MENA region further down the road. SEB's chief commodities analyst Bjarne Schieldrop sees a continued spreading of uprisings as more likely than not. In total SEB favour a long position for the day ahead.

SEB's chief commodities analyst Bjarne Schieldrop believes that the risk in the oil price continues to be skewed to the upside and hold a bullish view for the day ahead. This comes after the oil market held a steadier tone on Friday, calmed by Saudi Arabia's pledge to increase oil production.

Brent crude oil rallied to the intraday high of close to 120 dollars per barrel on Thursday in the morning as the main part of the Libyan oil production (about 1.0 mb/d out of 1.6 mb/d) appeared to have ground to a halt and a potentially extended state of civil war appeared more likely than a quick resolution to the conflict. This was probably about as high as Libya alone can push oil prices, says SEB's experts in Friday's crude oil comment.

SEB’s Latvian Housing Price Indicator hit a new high in February with 39 per cent of respondents in a survey forecasting higher housing prices in 12 months and only 13 per cent lower prices compared to today.

The year ahead is shaping up to be a good one for investors – providing they choose the right market. In the February Investment Outlook, released Tuesday SEB predicts overall global economic growth will average 4.5 per cent in 2011 and 2012 – well above the historical trend. Emerging markets will improve by 6.5 per cent and the industrialised OECD countries will end up just below 3 per cent, in both years. Watch Hans Peterson, head of Investment Strategy at SEB, review highlights from the report.

The commodity sector in general is set for steady growth throughout 2011, led in part by high demand in emerging markets and strong liquidity in OECD countries. Development of the four commodity sub-sectors could be vastly different, however, if wild weather continues to impact agriculture and energy markets.

Unlike the situation in some troubled Western European countries, budget consolidation in the Baltic countries is coming to an end after two year of belt-tightening policy. In the latest week, all three parliaments have approved the 2011 budgets.

Hans Peterson, head of Investment Strategy at SEB, comments on the latest issue of Investment Outlook released Tuesday.

Energy, industrial metals and precious metals are all likely to remain stable or improve for the rest of the year, but the agricultural sector is not likely to follow suit, according to SEB's Commodities Monthly report.

Signals from the corporate world continue to improve on almost all fronts. The same largely positive picture emerges if looking at recent macroeconomic data, especially from the United States. However, focusing on the debt and budget deficit situation for European sovereigns, as the market has done over the last quarter, the picture is fairly bleak. Focusing on global risk appetite and political risks, the picture looks even worse. Read the latest issue of SEB's Nordic Credit Quarterly to find out more.

Despite a historically high gold price there’s more to come and with the oil price hovering around 70 dollars per barrel a buying opportunity could well have opened up. Here you can hear SEB’s head of Commodities Research, Bjarne Schieldrop, share his views on the near-term prospects for commodities investments. 

SEB’s experts expect a commodity market rebound in the coming three months after the latest sell-off. In the latest issue of Commodities Monthly they however warn the rebound should be weaker than the market recovery in February.

The recent hard sell-off of some of the more sound and attractive currencies such as the Swedish krona and Norwegian krone following the intensification of the sovereign debt crisis has produced interesting opportunities for longer-term investors.

Optimism among Swedish CFO's is increasing. Swedish companies have been largely unaffected by recent sovereign unrest and financial market turbulence. In fact, according to Swedish CFOs, the business climate has improved significantly since our survey in February. Concerns regarding falling demand are decreasing and companies believe Asia will drive growth. More companies expect to increase staffing and profit expectations for 2010 remain high.

Here you can hear Ebba Lindahl, head of SEB Credit Research, talk about this and other findings from a recent survey among Swedish financial officers. 

Prospects for investments in risky assets such as equities and corporate bonds are good during the coming year despite the fiscal problems in certain countries, writes SEB’s experts led by Hans Peterson in the latest issue of Investment Outlook.

The world economy is now entering a new phase, where differences in underlying conditions are becoming ever clearer. “Our main scenario is that the recovery will continue in spite of imbalances and crises,” says Håkan Frisén, head of SEB Economic Research in a comment to the latest Nordic Outlook released Tuesday.

SEB's analysts see a large and credible IMF package as the most likely scenario to resolve the Greek debt issue. This is also what is needed to calm markets. Recent comments from EU officials also rules out debt restructuring for Greece. According to SEB's experts a proposal must be presented within coming days to calm financial and political nervousness.

Euphoria over the Greek rescue package is starting to fade. It's becoming increasingly clear that it's a short-term fix rather than a long-run solution. Thus, worried investors are likely to head out of euro and into gold, pushing the gold price back up again.

SEB's head of commodities research Bjarne Schieldrop shares his latest thoughts about trends for crude oil, Chinas impact on the commodities market, and why the demand for gold continues to increase.

SEB’s Housing Price Indicator for the Swedish housing market rebounded to +35 in April after slumping to +29 in March.

Preliminary data from Statistics Estonia published Friday shows the deficit remained well within the limits set out in the Maastricht Treaty, clearing the way for Estonia to adopt the euro in January 2011.

The worst seems to be over in the Baltic countries, and for the first time in years SEB’s economists revise GDP forecasts upwards for Estonia and Lithuania.

SEB’s latest Financial Officers’ Index shows that consistent with positive economic indicators, Swedish financial officers are becoming increasingly optimistic and many now expect higher volumes to contribute to improved profitability in 2010. In addition, they regard price increases as more likely than before.