There have been some encouraging economic data lately but the euro zone is still unlikely to avoid a recession, SEB’s economists say in a research note. Weakening growth prospects, delayed reforms and political challenges imply that a Greek exit from the euro zone is a distinct possibility. However, a break up of the whole euro zone is still unlikely but success depends on continuing support from the ECB combined with national adjustment programmes and further steps toward a fiscal union. Resolution of the debt crisis will be the main theme in 2012.