While rising oil prices have not yet killed off the global economic recovery, SEB's commodities experts express a concern that they may do so. Sharply lower purchasing manager indices (PMIs) clearly signal a risk. Rising European and emerging market interest rates are causing money portfolios to diversify away from the dollar, which is expected to depreciate in the second quarter, thereby supporting commodity prices. With hedge funds more exposed to commodities than at their 2008 high, SEB also anticipates increasing volatility, divergence and profit taking.