The shift from one economic growth engine to another is occurring more sluggishly than desired: with private consumption and capital spending not successfully filling the void emerging as the positive effects of fiscal stimulus programmes and inventory build-up fade away. In Tuesday’s Nordic Outlook, SEB’s economists forecast that in the OECD countries, economic growth is expected to end up at 2-2.3 per cent during the next couple of years, or somewhat below trend. They also peg the probability of a new global recession at 25 per cent.