SEB's analysts see a large and credible IMF package as the most likely scenario to resolve the Greek debt issue. This is also what is needed to calm markets. Recent comments from EU officials also rules out debt restructuring for Greece. According to SEB's experts a proposal must be presented within coming days to calm financial and political nervousness.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) can act more quickly than EMU-16 and is not restricted by domestic policies.
IMF has large financial resources, currently in the neighbourhood of some 500 billion dollars and they can be increased further by commitments also from non-EU countries (e.g. China, Japan). The money will be paid out in instalments over a long period and conditioned on adherence to the agreed consolidation programme.
Previous IMF led packages have amounted to between 20 per cent and 40 per cent of gross domestic product (e.g. Latvia, Hungary, Iceland). The Greek package will likely be considerably larger. Current speculations range between a sizeable increase to 150 billion euro (amounts to roughly 60 per cent of GDP) and a more modest increase by 10 billion euro.