During the autumn some indicators showed a bottoming-out in the Baltic region, and these trends have grown stronger since then.
According to the latest Economic Insights report, issued by Mikael Johansson, head of SEB’s Baltic and Eastern European research, all three countries have received essential support from the incipient global recovery. This is visible in both the third and fourth quarter GDP figures – as well as in so called forward-looking indicators.
A month ago, SEB revised the GDP forecast upwards for Lithuania, and now the same is done for Estonia. GDP in Estonia is forecasted to grow with two per cent in 2010 and by five per cent 2011, mainly due to expected increase in demand from Swedish and Finnish companies.
On the other hand, domestic demand is still weak in the three Baltic countries, and Latvia is still in recession. During the coming year Latvia’s GDP is expected to fall by another three per cent, and recovery will not come until 2011.
ANNA S MARCUS
SEB: Economic Insights, Experts led recovery in the Baltics